Foreword Strategies · U.S. Voter Media & TV Landscape 2026
Foreword Strategies
Voter Media Intelligence Report
U.S. Voter Media & TV Landscape
A meta-analysis of publicly available media consumption data from Foreword Strategies — synthesizing Nielsen, Pew Research, eMarketer, Samba TV, and Edison Research to map how American voters consume media across platforms, streaming services, and broadcast.
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How Voters Consume Media
Platform reach, daily engagement, and news consumption among U.S. voters — with age breakdowns across social media and digital platforms.
Pew Research 2024–25eMarketer 2024Nielsen 2024Reuters Institute 2024
84%
YouTube Adult Reach
Highest of any platform
92 min
CTV Daily Avg
Highest daily engagement
38%
Facebook News
Tied with CTV for top news source
37%
TikTok Reach
+70% since 2021
▸ Key Takeaways for Campaign Planners
1
YouTube is underutilized in political budgets. It reaches 84% of adults — more than any other platform — but receives a fraction of the digital ad spend that Facebook does in most campaign budgets.
2
CTV now outperforms linear for persuadable voters. Cord-cutters skew younger, educated, and suburban — exactly the swing demographic. A program without CTV is leaving that audience behind.
3
Facebook still dominates for voters 35+. It remains the #1 source of political news for adults 30–64, and it's where most campaigns' persuasion targets actually spend time.
4
TikTok reaches younger voters nothing else can. 71% of adults 18–29 use it. If your race turns on youth turnout, it belongs in the plan.
Political Context
How Campaigns Typically Allocate Digital Budgets
Based on Foreword Strategies analysis of FEC disclosures and 2022–2024 campaign media reports.
We help Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations build smarter media programs — grounded in data like this, not habit. If this raised questions about your current plan, let's talk.
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CTV is Eclipsing Linear
Streaming now commands a larger share of TV time than cable or broadcast — and the gap is widening. Here's how the major CTV platforms stack up on reach, time spent, and subscriber growth.
Nielsen The Gauge 2024eMarketer Oct 2024Samba TV H2 2024Antenna Q3 2024
44.8%
Streaming TV Share
vs. 24.1% cable · 20.1% broadcast
238M
U.S. CTV Viewers 2024
eMarketer — 69% of population
92 min
Daily CTV Avg
vs. 49 min linear (Nielsen)
–26M
Pay-TV HH Lost
84M (2019) → 58M (2024)
The Big Shift
Streaming Takes Over TV Time
Share of total U.S. TV viewing time by category — Nielsen The Gauge, mid-2024
Platform Reach
Monthly Viewers by CTV Service
Estimated U.S. monthly active viewers (millions) — eMarketer / Nielsen 2024
Time Spent
Average Daily Minutes per Viewer by Platform
Avg. daily minutes watched among platform subscribers — Nielsen / Samba TV H2 2024
Subscriber Scale
U.S. Paid Subscribers & YoY Growth
U.S. paid subscribers (millions) with year-over-year growth — Q3 2024
#
Platform
Subscribers (M)
YoY Growth
Ad-Supported %
Ad-Supported Shift
% of New Subscribers Choosing Ad-Supported Tier
Gross new adds choosing AVOD / ad-supported plan — Antenna Q3 2023 vs Q3 2024
Sources
Nielsen The Gauge — Monthly TV Share Report, mid-2024 (streaming 44.8%, cable 24.1%, broadcast 20.1%)
eMarketer Forecast, October 2024 — U.S. CTV Viewers & Monthly Active Users by Platform
Nielsen Total Audience Report 2024 — Daily Minutes by Platform
Click any state to see its Nielsen DMA markets, broadband access rates (FCC 2024), and TV household data. Broadband penetration serves as a structural proxy for CTV readiness — higher broadband access correlates with greater streaming adoption potential.
Nielsen DMA Rankings 2024FCC Broadband Data 2024Samba TV H2 2024
210
Nielsen DMA Markets
Across all 50 states
97%
Broadband Coverage
25/3 Mbps nationally (FCC)
117M
CTV Households
U.S. total, 2025
6.9%
Cord-Cut Rate
Q2 2024 — record decline
▸ Click a state to view DMA markets and broadband data
Lower broadband access
Mid-tier broadband
High broadband access
Selected state
—
Select a state
Broadband Access (FCC 2024)
25/3 Mbps (Basic)—
100/20 Mbps (CTV-Ready)—
State Profile
Nielsen DMA Markets
Rank = Nielsen national rank · HH = TV households in market
National CTV Context
Key Streaming Infrastructure Metrics
National
Cord-Cutting Pace
Pay-TV households fell from 84M (2019) to 58M (2023). Q2 2024 saw the fastest decline rate in a decade at 6.9% quarterly.
+506%
Political CTV Ad Growth
CTV political advertising grew 506% between 2020–2024 cycles as campaigns followed voters to streaming platforms.
$28.8B
CTV Ad Spend 2024
Connected TV ad spending reached $28.79B in 2024, projected to reach $46.89B by 2029 as streaming continues to scale.
How voters get their news, which platforms drive political awareness, and what the 2024 election revealed about viewing patterns as political signals.
Pew Research 2024Samba TV H2 2024Reuters Institute 2024
28.3M
Harris/Trump Debate
Largest linear event H2 2024
13M
FOX Election Night
Primetime viewers, led all networks
68%
Harris TV Ad Reach
vs. 59% for Trump
93/100
Sports on Linear
Top programs in H2 2024
News Platforms
Where Voters Get News
% of U.S. adults who regularly get news from each platform — Pew Research 2024
Election Viewership
2024 Election TV Moments
28.3M HH
Harris/Trump Presidential Debate
The most-watched linear event of H2 2024, drawing 51% more viewers than the top NFL game of the period (Bills vs. Chiefs at 18.7M HH).
20.2M HH
VP Debate
The second-most-watched non-sports event, underlining how the 2024 political cycle dominated linear TV ratings in ways not seen in years.
25.2M HH
Biden/Trump Debate (H1)
The June debate attracted 25.2M households — making both 2024 presidential debates among the top 3 non-sports events of the entire year.
Swing State Signal
FOX News vs. MSNBC Viewership as Election Predictor
Swing state news network preference
Samba TV found that households in key swing states — GA, AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA — were more likely to tune into right-leaning FOX News than MSNBC. This viewership split proved to be a more accurate early predictor of the election result than ad saturation data (where Harris outspent Trump).
Swing States → FOX News
GeorgiaArizonaNevadaMichiganPennsylvania
Swing States → MSNBC
Wisconsin
Campaign TV ad reach
Harris Campaign68%
Trump Campaign59%
Despite Harris outreaching Trump in TV ad coverage, swing-state FOX viewership proved a stronger predictor. Ad saturation alone did not determine outcome.
Debate overlap viewership
Biden/Trump debate (June): 25.2M HH
Harris/Trump debate (Sept): 28.3M HH
Watched both debates: 13.3M HH
Key Insight
Live Events Unify Fractured Audiences
Live event household viewership — H2 2024 (Samba TV)
Sources
Samba TV H2 2024 — Biggest TV Moments, Swing State Analysis
Pew Research Center (2024) — News Consumption Survey
Reuters Institute Digital News Report 2024
2026 Competitive Races
Every Senate, House, and Governor race rated Toss-Up, Lean D, or Lean R by Cook Political Report as of March 2026 — mapped to the DMAs where campaign media will matter most.
Cook Political Report — March 202618 House Toss-Ups6 Senate Competitive6 Governor Toss-Ups
18
House Toss-Ups
4 Dem-held · 14 Rep-held
2
Senate Toss-Ups
GA & MI — both Dem-held
6
Gov. Toss-Ups
AZ · GA · MI · NV · WI + KS Lean R
4
Senate Lean Seats
ME & NC lean R · NH lean D · MN likely D
Cook Political Report Ratings · Toss-Up + Lean · March 2026 · Click column headers to sort
Race Type ↕
State / District ↕
Incumbent
CPR Rating ↕
Key DMAs
Notes
Media Market Intelligence
Most Contested DMAs in 2026
DMAs with the most overlapping competitive races — Senate + House + Governor combined
Ad Strategy
Which CTV Platforms Accept Political Advertising?
✓ Accepts Political Ads
✕ No Political Advertising
Estimated CTV Political Ad CPM by Platform — 2024–2026 Cycle Range
Nielsen DMA Rankings 2024 — TV Household Counts by Market
AdImpact / Cook Political Report Battleground Issue Tracker (March 2026)
Platform political advertising policies — Hulu, Peacock, YouTube, Paramount+, Tubi, Netflix, Disney+, Apple TV+ (2024–2026)
Axios / POLITICO — CTV political ad CPM estimates 2024 cycle
Who Are the Persuadables?
Swing voters are younger, less educated, more racially diverse, and far less politically engaged than the base electorate. They are not watching cable news. They are not reading political newsletters. Understanding where they are — and who they are — is the foundation of any media plan.
Data for Progress 2024Navigator Research Nov 2024Pew Research 2024–25Blueprint Post-Election 2024AARP Battleground Polls 2024
43%
Under Age 45
vs. 33% of all likely voters — Data for Progress
~14%
Share of Electorate
Persuadable pool as % of likely voters — DfP 2024
62%
White (Non-Hispanic)
vs. 71% of all likely voters — more diverse
26%
Pay "A Lot" of Attention to Politics
vs. 43% of likely voters overall — DfP
Who They Are
Demographic Profile vs. Overall Electorate
Swing voter demographics vs. all likely voters — Data for Progress April–May 2024 (n=4,923 likely voters, 690 swing voters identified)
Age Profile
Swing Voters Skew Decisively Younger
Age distribution — Swing voters vs. all likely voters
Political attention level — Swing voters vs. all likely voters
Key Implication
The persuadable voter is not the high-information news consumer campaigns default to targeting. They are tuned out by choice. Reaching them requires being present in entertainment, sports, social, and audio environments — not political media.
Two Distinct Groups
Persuadables Are Not One Monolith
Type 1 — Classic Swing: Choosing Between Candidates
Political independents and moderate Republicans (Haley-type voters) genuinely weighing candidates
Tend to be slightly older, slightly more educated, more suburban
Motivated primarily by economic issues: inflation, jobs, cost of living
Responsive to contrast messaging and candidate biography
Presidential vote share by education level — Edison Research exit polls, 2016–2024
57%
Non-College Share of 2024 Electorate
Up from ~50% in 2016 — Edison Research
13pts
Trump margin w/ non-college voters 2024
Up from 7pts in 2016 — Inside Elections
14pts
Harris margin w/ college graduates 2024
Clinton won college grads by 10pts in 2016
Planning Implication
College-educated voters are increasingly locked into their party. The persuadable universe is disproportionately non-college. That demographic watches more broadcast TV, listens to more AM/FM radio, uses Facebook heavily, and is less likely to be reached by premium CTV or podcast advertising.
Media Consumption
Where Persuadable Voters Spend Their Media Time
Estimated media time index — persuadable voter profile (non-college, under 45, low political engagement) vs. average voter. Index: 100 = average voter baseline.
Note on Methodology
Index values are derived from cross-referencing Nielsen Audio Q4 2024, Pew Research social media demographics by age and education (2024), and Nielsen Total Audience Report data. The persuadable voter profile modeled here is: under-45, no four-year degree, low political engagement, suburban/mixed geography. This is a directional estimate for media planning — not a controlled study.
What Moves Them
Issues That Drive Persuadable Vote Choice
Top issues cited by swing voters — AARP Battleground State Polls 2024
Blueprint post-election: % of Trump-breaking swing voters who believed Harris held these positions (she did not campaign on them)
The Trust Gap — Blueprint Research, Nov 2024 (n=3,262)
Among swing voters who ultimately chose Trump: 80% said Trump prioritizes "Americans like me" vs. party activists. Only 22% said the same of Harris. This wasn't primarily a policy gap — it was a trust and cultural alignment gap that no amount of TV advertising alone closes.
Racial Composition
The Latino Vote Is Now a Genuine Battleground
Democratic presidential margin by racial group — Pew Research validated voter studies 2016, 2020, 2024
–22pts
Hispanic/Latino Dem Margin Shift
Biden +25 (2020) → Harris +3 (2024) — Pew
15%
Black Voters Chose Trump 2024
Up from 8% in 2020 — Pew validated voter study
60%
Women Among Swing Voters
vs. 53% of all likely voters — Data for Progress
Sources
Data for Progress — "Measuring the Swing: Evaluating the Key Voters of 2024" (May 2024, n=4,923 likely voters)
Navigator Research — "2024 Post-Election Survey: Trump Won Swing Voters by 8 Points" (Nov 2024, n=5,000)
Blueprint Research — "Lost in Translation: Swing Voters' Misperceptions of Harris and Late Turn to Trump" (Nov 2024, n=3,262)
Pew Research Center — "How Voting Patterns Changed in the 2024 Election" (June 2025, validated voter study)
Pew Research Center — "Voter Turnout in the 2020 and 2024 Elections" (June 2025)
AARP — "2024 Polling Series: Voters 50+ Share Their Candidate Preferences" — Battleground State Polls
CNN / Doug Sosnik — "Why Education Level Has Become the Best Predictor for How Someone Will Vote" (Oct 2024)
How Voters Consume Media
Platform reach, daily engagement, and news consumption among U.S. voters — with age breakdowns across social media and digital platforms.
Sources
We help Democratic campaigns and progressive organizations build smarter media programs — grounded in data like this, not habit. If this raised questions about your current plan, let's talk.
A Foreword Strategies inquiry. We'll respond within one business day.